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  #1  
Old 07-01-2017,
BrianBroff BrianBroff is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2017
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Default Back to the basics.

How to tell if a stock will go up or down?
That's all I want to learn for now. I know you can't be 100% but I don't want to hear the objections.
Specifically, how do you know whether a stock will go up or down?

My example of how I would tell is, facebook has been trending upwards. Intraday, intraweek, and intramonth.
I also pulled up bollinger bands and intraday it appears to be closer to the red band meaning oversold.
SO I ASSUME IT WILL GO UP TOMORROW.

How do you guys decide whether a specific stock will go up or down, strategically.
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  #2  
Old 07-02-2017,
Brettcepsy Brettcepsy is offline
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Join Date: May 2017
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Looks "over bought" here to me. Either way there are other factors to consider.
1. How much capital you have to work with.
2. The time frame you want to work in, ie. just tomorrow, several days or more, long term, etc.
3. How much you are looking to gain vs. how much you are willing to lose.

You could also use strategies that are non-directional, or reduce cost basis to give you an edge. There are many ways to go here.

For me there isn't enough implied volatility to really get a lot of edge....but if for some reason I had some notion that it was going to go higher within the next 50 days and I had a small account I might sell the July 65 calls and buy the Jan15 62.50 calls. This would give you the directional notion with max gain of 245 with around 600$ capital. I would look to cash out somewhere over 50% max profit. And reduce your break even to 60.57. So you would make money as long as it stayed above your break even at July expiration.
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  #3  
Old 07-02-2017,
BrettOstee BrettOstee is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2017
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I'm having a hard time understanding as I don't know how options work yet. I do plan on getting to that, as from what I've learned from you is that options reduce risk and let you gain more capital.
1. I would be working with about 3.5k plus a margin account, and that wouldn't be setup as option.
2. timeframe, 1-2 days max.
3.I'm not focusing on accuracy as to how high or low i'd let it run, for now I just want to know. How to tell whether a stock will go up or down.

So if you look at fb right now, in the next 1-2 days do you think it will go up/down and why/why not?
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  #4  
Old 07-04-2017,
buymesoTar buymesoTar is offline
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
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In my opinion, the buy on FB was last week as Timing is everything. It's not about guessing what it could do on any specific day, but waiting until we have the entry that we like. If you're guessing your gambling. I take calculated directional risks with a clear understanding of price action and risk management. If you make good entries, you will make good exits. Sounds like you still need to work on entries.

I'll give you a hint though, bollies are just going to confuse you even more. Start with a candle chart and volume, that's it. Draw lines across highs and lows. Way easy right? Now go pick 10 charts and just draw. Then go do 100 more. Practice, Practice, Practice. I did a quick video awhile back on where and how to draw on charts for free if you don't have a platform.
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